The Ninth Inning
Since this is a baseball league, a ninth “inning” would be aesthetically pleasing. It also reduces the likelihood of tied games each week. Ideally, the ninth and final core statistic for our fantasy league scoring would reflect defense. Fielding, however, is the most subjective area of baseball.
The error (E) is a stat that keeps track of fielding mistakes, like bobbled or poorly thrown balls. It is the most common of several judgment calls made by a game’s official scorer, the designated recorder of everything that took place in the game. What constitues an error in the boxscore depends on who is watching. Two different official scorers could judge the same fielding attempt and come to opposite conclusions about charging a player with an error.
Errors are controversial for other reasons. It is easy for a poor fielder with limited range to avoid being charged with an error that a quicker or better positioned fielder would receive. Errors are contextual to the position, as well. Shortstops and third basemen are more likely to be error prone due to more fielding opportunities and longer throws to first. Errors can be as rare as triples, making it an impractical choice to become a core fantasy statistic.
If readily available, Assists and Putouts might be a consideration. They may not reflect the true quality of fielder, but these stats do translate to defensive time spent touching the ball. As with errors, these are biased toward certain positions. First basemen and catchers tally significantly more putouts than their third-base teammates. Assists are credited about once for every three putouts, with the middle infield and third basemen earning the lion’s share through ground outs. The practical problem with fielding stats is that there is more difference between the positions people play than the top players at each position.
According to Winston, the best stat for defense is the Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). For every ball hit into play, the fielder gets points based on whether his position is likely to get to the ball and if he was successful fielding it. These base metrics are converted into runs, which in turn can be converted into wins.
“That will make kids appreciate that the traditional metric is really stupid,” says Winston.
Winston singled out Derek Jeter, who won the Gold Glove at his position last year, as a lousy fielder. Jeter’s UZR was -6.5, despite only making 12 errors as a shortstop. On the other hand, Brett Gardner had a 25.2 UZR for the Yankees in 2011. At 10 runs to a win, Gardner’s fielding translates to an extra two-and-a-half wins for his team. “Even if he cost his team -2.5 wins as a hitter,” Winston explains, “that makes him an average player. It’s easy to interpret, but you don’t want to do the math with 9-year-olds.”
Without a reliable defensive stat to use, our league will use an additional offensive category: Runs Scored (R). Annual leaders finish between 120-130 runs per season, well shy of Ruth’s modern era record of 177 in 1921 (Billy Hamilton has the actual record, 196, with the Phillies in 1894). Though teams cross home plate just under five time a game these days, it is still off the pace of the Golden Age of baseball, with Ruth and the Yankees in the 1920s.
The run is a stat that combines good base running with an ability to get on base. It doesn’t exclude power hitters, either, who get a noticeable percentage of their runs by hitting the ball out of the park. Runs Scored is arguably the only stat that matters to a team, making it a good choice to include in fantasy play, too.
“Anyone who knows the math of baseball — and has a law degree to know how the salaries work — can be a GM,” says Winston. We presume the law degree is optional for fantasy managers.
The inaugural 2012 GeekDad Sports fantasy baseball season is sponsored by FanStar Sports, helping to give a voice to the sports geeks in our community. Since 1991, FanStar Sports (http://www.fanstar.com) has provided services to thousands of fantasy leagues. The Arizona company provides fantasy league hosting for baseball, football, basketball, hockey and NASCAR. The administration and presentation of each league are highly customizable, able to accommodate a wide range of unique needs.
