Hitting
As with pitching, hitting statistics will aggregate into a few general groups: Contact (includes metrics like batting average, hits, walks and strikeouts), Power (home runs, slugging percentage, and total bases) and Clutch Hitting (runs batted in and even at bats). For those lucky enough to get on base, a fourth group — Baserunning — has metrics like stolen bases and runs scored to help evaluate a player’s ability to do something after the at bat.
These groups reflect the various strengths of a player’s offensive repertoire. The most valuable players are the ones who can excel in all four areas, but rare is the hitter who can be the best at everything. Only thirteen players in baseball history have won the Triple Crown, by leading or being tied for first in batting average, RBIs and home runs. The last Triple Crown winner was Carl Yastrzemski in 1967, and the irascible Ty Cobb remains the lone Quadruple Crown winner by virtue of also stealing a league-best 76 bases in 1909.
The hitter equivalent of WHIP may be Runs Created (RC). It is an attempt by Bill James to answer the question of how production at the plate translates into the runs that win games. Although the technical formula can be quite involved, the idea generalizes to the product of a hitter’s ability to get on base and hit for power over the number of chances he gets to make contact. Tom Tango, author of The Book, updated the stat to turn it into a comparative measure against league average: Weighted Runs Created (wRC). (“He’s really smart,” admires Winston, “smarter than Bill James, I think.”) RC has been shown to be quite accurate in predicting a team’s run total, and therefore is considered a good indicator of individual contribution.
There are two practical problems with Runs Created. First, it’s all formula. It would be challenging for the average fan to watch a game of baseball and track RC. Second, like its cousin On-Base Plus Slugging (OBS), it is too comprehensive for a fantasy baseball league that wants to separate different aspects of the game. Combining contact and power may be a great way to evaluate talent, but we are looking to compare those kinds of stats separately.
On-Base Percentage
Many sports stats junkies have come to dislike the uber-stat OBS because its formula equates On-Base Percentage (OBP) with Slugging Percentage (SLG), despite the former being almost twice as important to a team’s run production. OBP takes into account hits, walks and times hit by a pitch to calculate the rate at which the hitter contributes a baserunner for the team. OBP gets the nod over Batting Average (BA) as a core fantasy league stat because it isn’t only about contact, but also reflects the patience of a hitter to draw walks and his fearlessness when crowding the plate.
OBP will reward power hitters, too, who draw intentional walks for fear of giving up home runs. Even more than batting average, on-base percentage offers a wide range of values for players, making it a great stat to help differentiate fantasy team performances.
“I like on base and slugging,” says Winston. “They became so popular with Moneyball. You can find those stats on any baseball card now.”
Home Runs
Slugging is calculated by dividing total bases (worth one for singles, four for homers) by the number of at bats, simple math that isn’t difficult to figure out from the bleachers. “Slugging percentage is a good thing to teach kids,” says Winston.
The only other time in history when slugging spiked as high as it is now was during the heyday of Babe Ruth. As power numbers steadily increased since the 1960s, the league’s overall slugging percentage has plateaued around .425. How much steroids or contemporary ballparks have contributed to these most recent power numbers, only time will tell. The biggest knock against using SLG is that it wouldn’t win a popular vote.
Ever since the Babe called his shot, the common fan considers the home run to be the promise of every at bat. The iconic sign of a power hitter is his ability to knock a pitched ball out of the park, and it takes a special kind of player to do that consistently. Even as the home run is becoming more frequent — for the past decade and a half, major league teams averaged just over a homer a game — the league leaders are still typically in the 40s and 50s.
The exception: Four years between that wonderful and infamous 1998 season and 2001, when Barry Bonds hit 73. During that span, Roger Maris’ 37-year-old record was broken a half dozen times by three players (Bonds, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa). 1998 set a MLB attendance record of 70,601,147 fans, starting a surge that grew to 79,447,312 in 2007. At the end of that year, the Mitchell Report was released detailing abuse of performance enhancing drugs over that time. Attendance took a dive as a result of the scandal, but the increased presence of the homer clearly was a hit with fans.
“You’ve got to do home runs, because that’s what people care about,” admits Winston.
Stolen Bases
During periods of increased power in baseball history, stolen base totals decrease. In baseball, a baserunner can advance to an open base without the ball being hit. If successful, a Stolen Base (SB) is awarded; if not, the runner is charged with a Caught Stealing (CS). There are even some situations where an official scorer can declare “defensive indifference” and not give credit for the steal. Steals are often the mark of quick players who tend to lack power.
“Stolen bases in real life doesn’t mean that much,” says Winston. “It makes it more fun to draft, because you can take that fast guy.”
There are other measures of ability on the basepaths, but each brings its own headache. Incorporating caught stealing into the equation as a penalty could bring up the possibility that there would be a negative total at the end of the week (My own preference in fantasy leagues is to deal only with positive numbers). Using a percentage of steals per attempts would bias in favor of those who don’t attempt many. Since statistical studies have shown that a runner needs to be successful at least two-thirds of the time to avoid hurting his team, sabermetricians came up with Stolen Base Runs (SBR) as another attempt to equate running to scoring. Each successful steal is worth .3 runs while being caught stealing takes away .6 runs. While accurate, SBR is too abstract. In the GDS, we stay simple and count steals.
RBIs
Runs Batted In (RBI) gives credit to the batter whose at-bat results in a run being scored (double-plays and errors excluded). The stat has been around since the earliest days of the National League and is one-third of the coveted Triple Crown. RBI totals are often visible factors in determining annual MVP awards and Hall-of-Fame consideration. The HoF Standards formula doesn’t start giving credit for RBIs until a player reaches at least 900 in his career. Harold Baines has the most career RBIs for someone eligible but not (yet) in the Hall of Fame, with 1,628.
RBIs can also serve to prop up below-average hitters (Joe Carter comes to mind) and might be better considered as a percentage or WAR (Wins Over Replacement) kind of stat. Despite criticism that the RBI is too dependent on the lineup position and teammates surrounding a player — a batter with runners on base has more opportunities to drive in runs — it remains an easily comprehended and reasonable indicator of clutch hitting.
That brings the GDS to eight core statistics, four categories for pitchers and four for hitters.
